OSPAR Science Agenda Knowledge Gap Portal

Knowledge gap description: Climate change-induced change in marine environmental conditions is anticipated to affect the introduction and spread of non-indigenous species (NIS), but more climate modelling is required to quantify this risk.

Knowledge gap description: Information on the influence of climate change

Knowledge gap description: An in-depth understanding of how climate change affects population status is needed

Knowledge gap description: Climate change is changing the predictability of how physical processes affecting the patterns of primary production produce patches of plankton concentration. Such changes, often occurring across multiple temporal and spatial scales, should be considered in the development and adaptation of marine management processes, so as to effectively and adaptably plan towards, and manage for, future conditions.

Knowledge gap description: Ecosystems and the species interactions within them are not static, and how anticipating change in these dynamic systems under climate change is needed.

Knowledge gap description: Examine national datasets at a finer spatiotemporal scale, to help establish clearer links between climatic and anthropogenic pressures with changes in pelagic habitats and plankton diversity.

Knowledge gap description: Effect of melting sea ice and other climate change-induced pressures, including increased human activities in the Arctic

Knowledge gap description: Integration methods and cumulative effects assessments need to be further developed to capture impacts of human activities and climate change on food webs, in terms of changes in trophic and non-trophic interactions and the supply of ecosystem services.

Knowledge gap description: Climate Change: There are some uncertainties in the climate change predictions, which will require additional research in order to increase accuracy on the future impacts of benthic habitats, particularly along the coastline.

Knowledge gap description: Climate Change: There is not always a wide range of datasets available to systematically measure the effects of climate change and ocean acidification on benthic habitats and species, due to the paucity of the monitoring programme.

Knowledge gap description: Climate Change: For example, carbonate mounds, Haploops habitat and Cymodocea meadows were excluded due to the lack of information available within the Marine Evidence based Sensitivity Assessment (MarESA) sources.

Knowledge gap description: Climate Change: The predictions of future trends (2020-2030) for the condition of deep-sea sponge aggregations are challenging. Future environmental conditions in the OSPAR Maritime Area may contribute to deterioration in the condition of deep-sea sponge aggregations. However, further research is needed to advance scientific knowledge on this front.

Knowledge gap description: Climate Change: Climate change and ocean acidification impacts on carbonate mounds remain unknown.

Knowledge gap description: Climate Change: The current and immediate future impacts on coral gardens from ocean acidification are difficult to quantify. Predictions tend not to take into account the potential increased vulnerability of early life stages to ocean acidification.

Knowledge gap description: Climate Change: Although adult vent organisms are adapted to oscillations and variable low pH, high temperature and low oxygen in vent fluids, it is not known whether species are adapted to permanent change in environmental variables.

Knowledge gap description: Limited understanding of the effects of climate change on deep-sea ecosystems. Climate change and ocean acidification is increasing but evidence of impacts since the Quality Status Report (QSR) 2010 assessment is still lacking.(Note that this is relevant for all deep sea benthic habitats).

Knowledge gap description: Experimental work assessing the (synergistic) impacts of climate-related stressors on the health of deep-sea sponges will substantially advance the scientific knowledge about the status of deep-sea sponge aggregations under future environmental conditions e.g. climate change.

Knowledge gap description: Further work is required to understand life history characteristics and population dynamics of deep-sea sponges, to predict effects on populations and habitats of e.g. climate change.

Knowledge gap description: Knowledge gaps of biodiversity and resilience of communities to disturbance and change (e.g. fishing, climate change, potential future deep-seabed mining).

Knowledge gap description: The effects of warming sea temperature on large fish index (LFI) threshold values and on demersal fish size composition recovery rates are not known fully.

Knowledge gap description: How warming seas may impact population recovery among sensitive fish species is not known.

Knowledge gap description: Climate change: identify future unsuitable areas (i.e. southern Europe) and locate potential suitable ones that will ensure reproductive success

Knowledge gap description: Impacts of range shifts in prey species as well as ocean warming and acidification should be investigated. Special attention should be drawn to any coastal development project, and potential habitat and/or hotspots included in national or regional marine spatial planning frameworks

Knowledge gap description: Limited data and understanding on the extent of the effects of climate change.

Knowledge gap description: Impacts of climate change on nutrient inputs to the sea and resulting ecological effects are uncertain. Predictability of drought conditions (because this may impact agriculture) may become an important factor in minimising future nutrient inputs. Changes in crops or irrigation techniques may mitigate some shortages while technological development may reduce industrial water use. On the other hand, episodic events such as flooding are expected to increase suspended sediment and nutrient inputs. Whether this cancels any general decrease in run-off is unclear. Furthermore, more investigation is needed in order to understand the ecological effects of the greater variability in nutrient inputs and how to monitor and assess such increasingly prevalent events for the purposes of future eutrophication assessments.